OREANDA-NEWS. March 23, 2017. Risk to U.S. property from thunderstorms is as high as from hurricanes, according to new research published by Willis Re, the reinsurance division of Willis Towers Watson (NASDAQ:WLTW), the global advisory, broking and solutions company.

A report compiled with Columbia University, a member of the Willis Research Network (WRN), Managing Severe Thunderstorm Risk, says that the average annual loss from severe convective storms (SCS) was $11.23 billion, compared with $11.28 billion from hurricanes for the period 2003 – 2015. For the past decade, SCS was the largest annual aggregated risk peril to the US insurance industry.

The report also says that SCS frequency in the U.S. is higher following La Ni?a, and lower following El Ni?o. 

Prasad Gunturi, executive vice-president, Willis Re said: “Regional variability in increased or reduced severe convective storm frequency due to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase can have a significant impact on regional and single state property insurance companies. In collaboration with Columbia University, we are working to develop a climate conditioned severe convective storm event set for portfolio probabilistic loss estimates. We hope the climate conditioned view of risk can help companies understand, manage and mitigate the regional and year over year variability in severe convective storm losses.”

Michael Tippett, associate professor in Columbia Engineering’s Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, said: "The latest research shows that ENSO and other climate signals modulate the frequency of tornado and hail activity in the U.S. We’re excited to be using that research as a scientific basis for making long-range (up to a month) forecasts of the meteorological factors that go along with severe convective storms.”

The report was written to increase understanding of the impact of ENSO on tornado and hail frequencies, and to introduce the concept of ENSO-conditioned event rates. Using data from Columbia researchers, Willis Re now plans to produce monthly forecasts of tornado and hail activity for client use.

You can view the full report here

ABOUT WILLIS REWillis Re combines global expertise with on-the-ground presence and local understanding. Our integrated teams reveal hidden value in the critical intersections between risk, assets and ideas.  As the reinsurance advisory arm of Willis Towers Watson, Willis Re can access and negotiate with worldwide markets and boost your business performance by making better reinsurance decisions. Together, we unlock value.  Learn more at www.willisre.com.

ABOUT WILLIS RESEARCH NEWTORK (WRN)
The Willis Research Network is an award winning collaboration between academia and the finance and insurance industries.  Since it was founded in 2006, the Willis Research Network has explored ways in which the world’s leading research organisations can help confront the challenges of managing risk and delivering resilience for our industry, providing transmission a mechanism for delivering research impact into the global re/insurance industry. Through the Willis Research Network, Willis Towers Watson has teamed up with more than 50 world-leading institutions pioneering science and new analytical approaches to traditional problems of greatest relevance to our clients and our industry. Learn more at www.willis.com/willisresearchnetwork.