Analysts Estimated the Shortage of Reserves of Russian Banks at 1.5 Trillion Rubles
OREANDA-NEWS Despite the improvement in the quality of banks' assets, the volume of undeveloped reserves in the Russian banking system by the beginning of 2019 remains high, according to the Expert RA review. Banks may need at least 1.5 trillion rubles, or more than 15% of the capital of the banking sector, for their creation, analysts of the rating Agency calculated.
At the same time, Expert assesses the stability of the system to the simultaneous implementation of these risks as adequate, taking into account the expected amount of pre–tax profit, which predicts a record growth in 2019 to 1.8-1.9 trillion rubles against 1.3 trillion rubles in 2018. In addition, most large banks now have a sufficient stock of capital (including allowances) compared to the beginning of last year, analysts emphasize. But if the stress scenario is implemented, banks may face the need for additional capitalization to meet the requirements of the regulator, Expert RA believes.
The assessment of undeveloped reserves of 1.5 trillion rubles is based on an in-depth analysis of the rated banks, the review says. This amount includes the amount of undeveloped reserves for the most impaired loans of the 4th-5th quality categories (the current level of reserves covers them by 90%), as well as reserves for problem assets, which often have no formal signs of impairment or with insufficiently conservatively assessed risks. Category 4 quality require reservation from 51% of the debt, and 5-I — 100-percent redundancy.
"For example, the Bank may underestimate the risks of the borrower and create an insufficient reserve, that is, refer the borrower not to the problem debt (4-5-I quality category), but to the questionable (3rd category), or we see that the two banks have different risk assessment for the same borrower, "explains the Director of Bank ratings" Expert RA " Mikhail Doronkin. Of the loans of 4-5 categories in the sector are not covered by 10%, that is, about 600 billion rubles., he explained.
The main volume of undeveloped reserves, he said, is concentrated in the banks of the top 50 assets, including large banks and banks with state participation. The top 50 is also present at least three banks with a high proportion of unreserved problematic assets with a total volume of 100-150 billion rubles They can become "clients" of the Fund consolidation of the banking sector of the Central Bank, predicts Doronkin.