Economists Recognize Beginning of Recession in Third of World Economy
Just two weeks ago, IIF lowered its forecast for global GDP growth from 2.6% to 1.6%, but since then the shock associated with COVID-19 coronavirus infection has "transformed into a complete sudden stop of global capital markets". The US, the eurozone and Japan are already in an economic recession that will last until the middle of the year, writes IIF chief economist Robin Brooks. The United States accounts for 15.1% of global GDP, the eurozone - about 11%, Japan - about 4%, according to the IMF.
IIF notes that a key assumption is the expected economic recovery in the second half of 2020, which means that the coronavirus epidemic will decline by summer. But if the pandemic drags on, even more pessimistic forecasts may materialize.