OREANDA-NEWSThe Russian ruble this week updated a maximum of nine months against the dollar (63.50 rubles) and the annual maximum against the euro (71.30 rubles). This happened against the background of weaker positions of the single European currency on the open market, which allowed optimists to intensify talk about the continued growth of the ruble. However, we do not share optimism for several reasons at once.

First, the likelihood of a local correction in oil prices is high in early May, which will also affect commodity currencies. But for the time being, they are growing, fueled by the Libyan crisis and another US attempt to exert pressure on Iran.

Secondly, the likelihood of preservation of verbal and non-verbal interventions by the Russian financial authorities remains. The Central Bank can increase the volume of purchases, and the Ministry of Economic Development will revise the average forecast for the ruble exchange rate, which will be enough to close part of long positions.

Thirdly, geopolitical crises, in which Russia somehow appears. Tensions will continue in Venezuela, in Libya, and in Ukraine, of which the West will continue to blame Russia. Consequently, it will try to continue the policy of sanctions that in no way contribute to the growth of the investment climate.

Since the beginning of April, the Russian ruble continued to strengthen. In the first two decades of the middle of spring, the “Russian” added 2.3 percent to the dollar, and strengthened by 1.7 percent to the euro.Taking into account all these factors, we expect a moderately negative scenario for the ruble during the second quarter. Paired with the dollar target corridor - 64-65 rubles, with the euro - 71.50-73. However, over the summer, anything can happen on the market, up to a sharp tightening or complete lifting of sanctions.