The Finance Ministry Made a Forecast of the Ruble to 2035
OREANDA-NEWS The Russian Ministry of Finance predicts a gradual weakening of the ruble in the long term. This information follows from the document submitted to the state Duma.
According to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, in 2021-2025 the ruble will be 66.4 rubles per dollar, in 2026-2030 — 71.1 rubles, and in the next five years — 73.9 rubles.
However, this is the nominal rate. The Finance Ministry emphasizes that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (an indicator that takes into account changes in the exchange rates of the main trading partners of Russia) will be relatively stable, "and therefore the nominal weakening will be largely due to the inflation differential" — the difference in the growth rates of prices in Russia and the United States.
Until 2020, inflation will be three and a half percent, and then stabilized at about four percent, expects the Ministry of Finance.
In addition, oil prices will be subject to small fluctuations: according to the forecasts of the Agency, in the period from 2021 to 2025, Urals oil will be estimated at 55.2 dollars per barrel, in 2026-2030 — 52.2 dollars, and in the next five years will rise to the level of 54.9 dollars per barrel
Earlier, the Ministry of economic development has kept its forecast for the ruble: according to estimates, by the end of this year, the Russian currency will be about 64 rubles per dollar.
"The vast majority of sources of global oil supply, including the Russian Federation and the middle East, have low threshold profitability (in the range of $10-30 per barrel). Shale mining in the US is profitable at prices around $ 35-50 per barrel. Less efficient sources of production - deep - sea shelf deposits or canadian bitumen Sands-for which there has been a reduction in threshold costs of up to $50-60 per barrel in recent years should not be discounted.
Thus, there are no economic prerequisites for maintaining high oil prices in the coming years," the document says.