The IMF Estimated the State's Share in the Russian Economy at 33%
OREANDA-NEWS The share of the public sector in value added in Russia was 33% in 2016, experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated, which is significantly lower than alternative expert estimates.
The authors of the new IMF report tried to refute the widespread idea of a significant increase in the share of the state in the Russian economy. "The share of the Russian state in GDP is much less than 70%," the report emphasizes.
According to IMF estimates, the government's share of production was 33% in 2016, slightly increasing from 32% in 2012. Public administration provided 13.5% of GDP, and state — owned enterprises-another 19.3% of GDP in 2016. Budget organizations and the largest state-owned companies are responsible for 50% of employment in the formal sector.
The IMF's estimate is comparable to that of the European Bank for reconstruction and development, which estimated the state's share of 35% in 2005-2010, but differs significantly from alternative estimates.
Moody's estimates the public sector's share of the Russian economy at 40-50%, taking into account partially privatized companies. The center for strategic development has a similar point of view — 46% at the end of 2016. FAS assessment is more radical: the contribution of state-owned companies to GDP reached 70% in 2015 compared to 35% in 2005.
However, arguing about the state's share of 70%, in report, the FAS refers to unnamed experts, draws attention to the Director of the Institute of strategic analysis Igor Nikolaev.
A strong variation in the estimates of the share of the state in the economy is explained by problems of methodology. If to consider on a share of fixed assets in property of the state, it will turn out at all 18%, emphasizes Nikolaev.
In 2014, the IMF said that the size of the public sector in the Russian economy exceeded 70% of GDP. However, the new survey uses the public sector's share of value added as a key indicator, which is determined on the basis of official data on sales or employment depending on the sector of the economy. For example, in the areas of education and health, employment data were analysed because these services are free and incomes are low. For the financial sector, the IMF estimated the government's share of value added as the ratio of state-owned banks ' assets to the total assets of the banking sector, as official data on Bank sales are not available.
The IMF also included subsidiaries of the 20 largest state-controlled non-financial companies, which are the majority of subsidiaries of companies such as Gazprom or Rosneft, which are generally classified as private in official data.