The World Bank Lowered Its Forecast for Economic Growth in Russia and in the World
OREANDA-NEWS In the forecast for 2019, the World Bank lowered its estimate of the growth of the world economy and the Russian economy. The review is published on the website of the organization.
Compared to the forecast released in June, the global GDP growth rate was revised down from 3% to 2.9% in 2019, and in the next two years growth will fall to 2.8% per year.
"At the beginning of 2018, the world economy was working at full steam, but during the year it slowed down, and next year the situation may become even more difficult," said World Bank chief Executive officer Kristalina Georgieva.
In her view,"as economic and financial difficulties increase in developing countries, the current achievements in reducing poverty in the world may be called into question".
At the same time, in June, the world Bank predicted that in 2019 the Russian economy will grow by 1.8%. In January, the projected growth is reduced by 0.3 percentage points to 1.5%, while in 2020 and 2021, the Russian economy, according to experts of the world Bank, will show an annual growth of 1.8%.
The growth rate of China's economy is projected to slow to 6.2%, while the rest of the region's economy will grow by 5.2% in 2019. In South Asia, economic growth will exceed 7%. Economic growth in Indonesia will stabilize at 5.2%, Thailand's economy will grow by 3.8%. In Poland, GDP will grow by 4%, experts predicted the world Bank.
Iran's economy is projected to decline 3.6% in 2019 due to sanctions, India's GDP is expected to grow by 7% and Pakistan's by 3.7%.
At the end of December, the head of the Ministry of economic development Maxim Oreshkin said that Russia's GDP growth in 2019 will be 1.3%. "The most difficult period for economic dynamics is the beginning of 2019," Oreshkin said at the time.
According to the Minister, this situation was caused by a combination of a number of factors, including volatility in commodity markets, the slowdown of the global economy and the decline in demand for Russian exports. In addition, the growth of VAT (value added tax) and the slowdown in the growth of corporate lending will have an impact on the Russian economy at the beginning of the year. The second half of the year will be more positive, Oreshkin assured.