OREANDA-NEWS. August 16, 2017. Ecuador is officially projecting crude output of 537,260 b/d in 2017, surpassing its Opec pledge of 522,000 b/d.

According to Ecuadorean central bank data, this year's production will fall by 1.95pc compared with 2016, but will remain above the threshold it was assigned in May when Opec and non-Opec countries renewed a pact to limit production.

Oil minister Carlos Perez said on 17 July that Ecuador would gradually increase flows in response to a "very difficult economic situation" and would be unable to meet its Opec commitment of cutting production by 26,000 b/d.

State-owned PetroAmazonas is expected to produce 428,000 b/d in 2017, a slight 0.2pc increase from 2016 that partially offsets a 1.8pc decline to 109,000 b/d in output from foreign oil companies, including Spain's Repsol, China's Andes Petroleum and PetroOriental, and Italy's Agip.

By 2018 the tiny Opec country foresees a 4.74pc ramp up in production to 562,740 b/d, mainly fueled by PetroAmazonas' development of the Ishpingo-Tambococha-Tiputini heavy crude block, which holds an estimated 1.7-2bn bl of 14?-15.5?API reserves.

Ecuador is not alone is breaching its Opec commitment. The International Energy Agency's most recent Oil Market Report estimates Opec compliance with the output agreement at 75pc in July, its lowest this year. Opec and its eight non-Opec partners in the deal are producing about 470,000 b/d in excess their commitments, the IEA said.

Ecuador is anchoring its future output on ITT. Tiputini is already producing 48,000 b/d and drilling at Tambococha is scheduled to start in fourth quarter 2017, according to Perez.

Ecuador will produce an average 552,000 b/d in 2017-22, according to the bank projections.

Ecuador's hydrocarbons secretariat foresees that by 2020 all three of ITT's fields will be in production, allowing PetroAmazonas to expand its output to 495,000 b/d. Including private-sector operations, overall production will rise to 561,000 b/d.