US fertilizer use on top row crops in 2018 is likely to decline from last year
Theoretical consumption of nitrogen, phosphates, potash and sulfur are expected to fall from the previous year as the US projects to plant 2.1mn less acres of corn and 2mn less soybean acres, based on the most recent USDA fertilizer application statistics.
Actual fertilizer consumption will vary as farmers deal with trade policy issues that may impact US agricultural commodities and an unfavorable early spring weather pattern, potentially resulting in further planted area cuts.
The USDA's projected 88mn acres of corn planted area translates to an estimated 186,000st drop in theoretical nitrogen demand from last year. But that estimated loss in nitrogen demand is partially offset by a 1.3mn-acre year-over-year increase in cotton and a 1.6mn-acre increase in all wheat acres, except durum. As a result, the total consumption estimate for nitrogen in 2018 is 8.15mn st, 1pc lower than last year and the US five-year average.
Phosphate and sulfur consumption are also projected to marginally decline from last season to 3.65mn st of P2O5 and 331,034st of sulfur, respectively. Estimated sulfur usage represents an 8pc increase from the five-year average, while phosphate usage is on par with the five-year baseline.
Potash use is estimated to decline by 1pc from the prior year to 3.84mn st of K2O, a 2pc drop from the five-year average.
The projected US corn crop will consume an estimated 5.72mn st of nitrogen, 1.96mn st of P2O5, 2.11mn st of K2O and 214,727st of sulfur. This is a 3pc decline across the board from last season.