High Inflation Is Expected in Russia in 2019
OREANDA-NEWS The Bank of Russia currently considers the optimal inflation forecast for 2019 at the level of 5-5.5%, told reporters first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva on the sidelines of the Second Eurasian women's forum.
"The forecast is always refined, but based on the situation that we are seeing now, and based on the assumptions that we are building on various parameters for the next year - it (inflation of 5-5.5% at the end of 2019) the best forecast we can make. It will certainly be clarified. We looked at various factors, and this is what our calculations give taking into account the trends that we have seen recently," Yudaeva said.
The Deputy Head of the Bank of Russia emphasizes that there are always "some uncertainties" in the forecast, it can be refined over time. However, she says, the regulator in its forecast comes from the current situation and forecasts regarding various parameters for the next year.
Earlier, first Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that there is no reason to exceed inflation next year expected by the government 4.3%.
In September, the Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for 2018 to 3.8-4.2% (previous - 3.5-4%), for 2019-to 5-5,5% (4-4,5%). Inflation should return to the target of 4% in the first half of 2020, when the effects of the weakening of the ruble and the increase in VAT will be exhausted.
According to the Central Bank of Russia, in the second half of 2018 there is an increase in inflation. In this regard, the specialists of the regulator " overestimated the current trends, made an assumption about the transfer coefficient of exchange rate dynamics." At the same time, the draft Federal budget for 2019 includes inflation of 4.3%.
Recall, since 2010, the minimum inflation was observed in 2017, then it was only 2.5 percent at the key rate at the end of the year 7.75 percent. The maximum rate was seen in 2015, it was 12.9 percent, with a key rate of 11 percent.