Russian Cabinet of Ministers Approved the Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of the Country Until 2036
OREANDA-NEWS The Russian Government approved the forecast of long-term socio-economic development of Russia until 2036, according to the website of the Cabinet. The document was prepared by the Ministry of economic development (MED).
The forecast provides for a smooth strengthening of the real exchange rate of the ruble and stable inflation in Russia at the level of 4% until 2036, said earlier the head of the MAYOR Maxim Oreshkin
At the same time, the government pointed to the need to clarify a number of provisions of this forecast, including its compliance with the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2019-2021, the level of inflation in the short term and the ratio of real wages and pensions.
The long-term forecast is prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development at the request of the law on strategic planning. It is developed every six years for an 18-year period.
"This kind of long-term forecasting is necessary for at least two reasons. First, because it broadens our planning horizons, expands the possibilities of taking into account our ideas about the future in order to plan medium-term and longer-term indicators of the country's development. And secondly, I think in 2036 it will be interesting to see what we thought about the future in 2018," Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a government meeting on November 22.
"It is impossible to predict exactly where we will be in 2036. But to look at the main trends, what structural changes they will lead to in advance, now, to respond to these changes from the point of view of socio-economic policy — this is the most important in this process", — said the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin.
Presented by the Ministry of Economic Development demographic dynamics reflects the existing demographic structure, said RBC Deputy Head of the international laboratory of demography Ranepa Sergey Shulgin. "The next wave of growth of the young population just begins in the late 2020s," he says. This is due to the increase in the number of births from 2007 to 2015. Generations born during this period will begin to enter the working age in 2025. "According to my estimates, the growth rate reaches a maximum in 2030, and then the period of decline begins," the expert said.
According to Shulgin, the forecast that the share of the older generation, that is, citizens older than the working age, will grow in the period under review, is right.