OREANDA-NEWS. Mathematicians from St. Petersburg State University have made a new forecast for the increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in Russia. Izvestia writes about this.

"The maximum number of new cases of the current wave of the epidemic can be registered at the end of June - about 25 thousand," said Viktor Zakharov, head of the Department of Mathematical Modeling of Energy Systems at St. Petersburg State University.

Therefore, according to the scientist, the peak incidence will be in mid-July, while the number of active patients will be 580 thousand people, which will exceed the indicators of the January peak (560 thousand people). At the same time, the number of new cases of COVID-19 in the first month of winter was higher, reaching 29 thousand people, he added.

Experts believe that by mid-July the number of new infections will decrease to 20 thousand per day, and by early August it will be half of the peak value.

The mathematician stressed that in the event of low rates of vaccination, Russians will face both "the fourth and fifth waves of COVID-19."

It is noted that real-time data is used to obtain the most accurate forecasts for four to five weeks.

Since the beginning of June, there has been a sharp increase in cases of coronavirus infection in Russia. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 5,236,593 people have suffered the infection, of which 127,180 have died, 4,818,244 have been treated and discharged.