Consumer Confidence in Ukraine, January 2012: Increase by 7.2%
OREANDA-NEWS. February 22, 2012. Improvement of consumer confidence of Ukrainians was observed in January 2012: the respective index is 82.5, which is 7.2 p. higher than the indicator value in December. Growth of consumer confidence was primarily caused by positive expectations regarding personal financial standing along with improved economic expectations. This is proved by the consumer confidence survey in Ukraine, conducted by GfK Ukraine on a monthly basis.
In January 2012 the Consumer Confidence index (CCI) increased by 7.2 p. to 82.5.
Index of the Current Situation increased by 4.5 p. to 79. The components of this index changed in the following way:
Index of Current Personal Financial Standing (x1) improved by 11.2 p. to 81.1;
Propensity to Consume (х5) lost 2.1 p. and reached 76.9.
Economic Expectations of the population increased by 9 p. to 84.8. The components of this index changed as follows:
Index of Expected Changes in Personal Financial Standing (х2) grew by 16.2 to 94.1;
Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next Year (х3) improved by 5.1 to 77.9;
Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next Five Years (х4) increased by 5.7 p. to 82.5.
At the same time, expectations regarding changes in unemployment improved in January: the respective index reached 128.6 which is 3.1 p. lower than the index value in December. Moreover, optimistic inflationary expectations were observed: index value decreased by 1.2 p. to 183.5. The index of devaluationary expectations of Ukrainians is fixed on the level of 120.9.
The following key trends were observed in January:
For the first time from August, 2011, in January 2012, the consumer confidence index exceeded the value of 80 and returned to the end of 2010 level. At the same time, the most significant increase of Ukrainian’s expectations concerns the changes in personal financial standing while the economic expectations remain low.
Despite the optimism concerning personal standing and lower fear of unemployment, the propensity to consume decreased along with reduction of inflationary expectations and low devaluationary expectations. The respective index (x5) was the lowest of all the subindices which form the consumer confidence index.
The consumer confidence increased in Western, Northern, and Central regions while its rates in south and east of Ukraine were noticeably lower.
”Insignificant growth of nominal incomes along with distrust towards authorities and high credit rates make Ukrainians be increasingly more careful with great purchases. At the same time, the improvement of current standing evaluation may cause FMCG expenditure increase”, as GfK Ukraine analysts comment.