Asia to Drive Growth in Oil Demand through 2035, Analyst Says
OREANDA-NEWS. August 16, 2013. Global petroleum demand will grow 15% over the next two decades due mainly to increased consumption in China and India, a leading Tokyo-based energy forecaster predicts.
Ken Koyama, chief economist at the Institute of Energy Economics Japan, estimates demand will rise to 97 million barrels per day, up 13 million barrels, with Asia accounting for nearly three fourths of growth.
Koyama predicts Japan, but not China, India and Southeast Asia, will witness a slight decline in oil consumption due to its aging population and improvements in technology, including increased usage of hybrid, battery-electric and fuel-cell vehicles in the automotive sector.
Meanwhile, the IEEJ forecasts global primary energy use (in addition to petroleum, coal, natural gas, nuclear and hydropower) will swell to 17.5 billion tons (oil equivalent) from 11.7 billion tons in 2010, with China and India accounting for 60% of growth.
Demand in industrialized countries is likely to decline or increase only marginally because of slowing economic growth and aging populations, Koyama says.
In the 2012 edition of the institute’s Asia/World Energy Outlook, the IEEJ estimates fossil fuels will account for most of Asian energy demand in 2035,with coal at 46%, petroleum 26% and natural gas 17%.
The report says the world’s population will grow to 8.6 billion in 2035, up from 6.8 billion in 2010, with Asia accounting for 52% of the total. India’s population will reach 1.6 billion and China’s will hit1.4 billion.