OREANDA-NEWS. In January 2015 the trend in economic growth sharply reversed, as the positive impact from booms in consumption and manufacturing production was exhausted by the end-2014.

As compared with the same month of the previous year, real GDP decreased by 1.2% in January 2015 after having increased by 0.5% in December 2014. The fall in GDP was mainly driven by a contraction in wholesale and retail trade. Trade contributed negatively in January by - 0.8 p.p. (after a 0.2 p.p. positive contribution). The contribution of manufacturing declined to zero (down from 0.5 p.p.). At the same time, net taxes on products and imports experienced a slight positive trend. According to preliminary data, exports of crude oil showed signs of recovery, and there was an acceleration in the production of excise goods.

As compared with the previous month, seasonally adjusted GDP declined by 1.4% in January (annualized decline of 16%), which was the sharpest monthly contraction since January 2009. The most important factors behind this downturn were deterioration in consumer spending along with an increase in consumer prices, and an unfavorable base effect related to the December spike in manufacturing.

In January, wholesale and retail trade contracted by 6.0%, manufacturing - by 2.4%, mining industry - by 1.4%. By contrast, the contribution of net taxes to GDP growth became positive for the first time in several months.