Analysis of Market of Households' Deposits in H1 2015
OREANDA-NEWS. The State Corporation "Deposit Insurance Agency" (DIA) has analyzed development of the market of households' deposits in H1 2015. The following trends are the most significant ones.
Saving Activity of the Population
In H1 2015 the volume of households' funds deposited with the banks increased by RUB 1,339.6 billion, up to RUB 19,892.3 billion (in H1 2014 the deposits decreased by RUB 74.3 billion). In relative terms, the aggregate amount of deposits increased by 7.2% (in H1 2014 - decreased by 0.4%).
Without the influence of currency reevaluation, growth of deposits in H1 2015 was 8.6%. The contribution to this growth of interest capitalization in H1 2015 is estimated as about 4 p.p. Thus, inflow of new deposits into the banking system amounted to about 4.6%.
The volume of saving bearer certificates in the reporting period increased by RUB 85.9 billion (by 18.7%) - up to RUB 546 billion.
As of July 1, 2015, the amount of deposits of individual entrepreneurs was RUB 225.2 billion (1.1% of the total amount of individuals' deposits) and has decreased by RUB 2.7 billion (by 1.2%) from the beginning of the year.
As the result, the total volume of insured funds with the banks in H1 2015 increased by RUB 1,247.1 billion (H1 2014 - decreased by RUB 82.5 billion). In relative terms, the growth was 6.8% - up to RUB 19,550.3 billion (H1 2014 - decrease by 0.5%).
According to the Agency's estimates based on the deposit market trends of the first half of the year, the volume of individuals' deposits in 2015 may increase by RUB 3.2 - 3.5 trillion or by 17-19% which corresponds to the volume of deposits at the end of the year in the amount of RUB 21.7-22.0 trillion. Such growth will be supported by a rather high saving activity of the population, capitalization of high interest under the agreements concluded earlier and the expected traditional inflow of the funds to the deposits at the end of each year.
The Structure of Deposits by Size
In H1 2015 the highest growth rates were demonstrated by the deposits within the upper part of the coverage limit: from RUB 700 thousand to RUB 1 million - by 16.2% as to the volume and by 13.7% as to the number of accounts; above RUB 1 million - by 17.8% as to the amount and by 37.9% as to the number of accounts. The volume of deposits from RUB 100 thousand to RUB 700 thousand almost did not change. Deposits for the amount less than RUB 100 thousand decreased by 3.6% as to the volume and by 0.8% as to the number of accounts.
For the half-year the share of deposits exceeding RUB 1 million increased from 42.8 to 47.2%. The share of deposits ranging from RUB 700 thousand to RUB 1 million increased from 8.0 to 8.7%. The share of deposits ranging from RUB 100 thousand to RUB 700 decreased from 37.3 to 33.4%, and the share of deposits for the amount less than RUB 100 thousand - from 11.9 to 10.7%.
The average amount of deposit throughout the banking system (without the accounts with less than RUB 1 thousand) as of July 1, 2015 was RUB 121.1 thousand showing the increase by 7.7% as compared to the beginning of the year.
Return on Deposits and its Influence on Deposits' Dynamics
The results of monitoring of the interest rates on deposits in top-100 retail banks testify to the gradual decrease in return on deposits. For H1 2015 more than half of the banks (77 out of 100) reduced their interest rates. 9 banks increased their interest rates. In 14 banks the interest rates remained unchanged.
As of July 1, 2015 the average interest rate (weighted by the volume of deposits) on RUB deposits in the amount of RUB 1 million for one year decreased by 3.1 p.p. down to 9.3% per annum. The average (non-weighted) interest rates on the similar deposits decreased by 3.9 p.p. down to 11.0%.
According to the Agency, the gradual decrease in the interest rates on deposits will continue in the nearest future.
Currency and Term Structure of Deposits
In H1 2015 the share of deposits in foreign currencies decreased insignificantly - from 26.1% as of the beginning of the year down to 25.6% as of July 1, 2015.
Due to higher rates on the short-term deposits, the share of long-term deposits for more than 1 year decreased - from 55.1 to 43.6%. At the same time, there was a significant increase in the share of deposits for less than 1 year - from 27.6 to 40.7%. The share of call deposits reduced from 17.3 to 15.7%.
In H1 2015 the share of the largest 30 banks in terms of volume of households' deposits increased insignificantly and made up 79.8%. The trend towards increase in the share of this group of banks has been observed from the end of 2013. During the reporting period the share of the Sberbank did not change and was 44.9%.
The deposits also grew fast with the "regional" banks - by 11.1%. Multibranch network banks increased the volume of deposits by 6.7%. Deposits with the banks of the Moscow region decreased by 5.0%. The volume of deposits with Sberbank increased by 7.1%.
DIA Insurance Liability
The insurance liability of DIA (covered deposits) in H1 2015 decreased by 0.8 p.p. - down to 68.6% of all eligible/insured deposits. The size of insurance liability without taking into acoount the Sberbank increased by 0.9 p.p. up to 61.2%.