The IEA Called the Price of Oil when Achieving Full Carbon Neutrality
OREANDA-NEWS. A collapse in oil prices to $24 per barrel by 2050 is possible with the implementation of the most radical decarbonization scenario worldwide. In all other cases, oil prices will remain quite high, the IEA calculated.
Such a forecast is contained in the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2021, which examines various scenarios of decarbonization of the world economy and related changes in oil and other energy prices. The toughest scenario is called Net Zero Emissions (NZE), when implemented, oil consumption in 2050 will amount to 24 million barrels per day.
If the countries of the world fully and on time implement decarbonization measures that are already provided for by governments (Announced Pledges Scenario), then oil prices will remain approximately in the same corridor as they are now: $67 per barrel by 2030 and $64 per barrel by 2050.
The moderate scenario of the Stated Policies Scenario assumes that not all the set climate goals will be achieved by 2050. In this case, the IEA forecasts oil prices at $60-90 per barrel. With this development, global oil demand will peak at 104 million barrels per day in the 2030s, and then gradually decline by 2050, according to the IEA.