E*TRADE Study Reveals Investors Are Optimistic Despite Uncertainties on the Horizon
- Slightly more than half of all investors believe the market will rise this quarter, up 13 percentage points from Q3.
-
Slightly more than half of all investors also believe the
U.S. economy is healthy enough for additional rate hikes this quarter, up 20 percentage points from Q3. - "Easy Rider" is catching up to "Dazed and Confused" as the movie title that best describes investor views of the market. Since Q3, the former increased 9 percentage points, while the latter dropped 10 percentage points.
- The majority of investors remain bullish at 55 percent.
"While Q3 saw investors bracing for the aftershocks of Brexit, going into Q4 investors' optimism in the market and
Mike Loewengart, VP of Investment Strategy at
The survey also explored where investors feel potential investment opportunities may be this quarter.
Mr. Loewengart offered insight into those identified:
- Information technology. Half of all investors believe the information technology sector offers potential in Q4, up 6 percentage points from the previous quarter. After investor interest in information technology dipped in Q3, the sector returned to favorability, possibly buoyed by attractive valuations.
- Financials. Investor sentiment in financials rose to 32 percent in Q4, up 7 percentage points. As the possibility of a Fed rate hike in Q4 increases, investors may view financials as a sector that could benefit from interest rates moving higher.
- International markets. While investors still favor domestic markets, interest in international markets—both developed and emerging—has increased since Q3. Perhaps interest in these markets—specifically the developed countries in Europe—may have risen as concerns over the impact of Brexit may have subsided.
For useful insight from
About the Survey
This wave of the survey was conducted from
Referenced Data
When it comes to the current market are you? | ||||||||||||||||||||
Q4'16 | Q3'16 | Q2'16 | Q1'16 | Q4'15 | ||||||||||||||||
Bullish | 55% | 55% | 61% | 45% | 50% | |||||||||||||||
Bearish | 45% | 45% | 39% | 55% | 50% | |||||||||||||||
If you had to pick a movie title that best describes how you personally feel about the market right now, which would it be? | ||||||||||||||||||||
Q4'16 | Q3'16 | Q2'16 | Q1'16 | Q4'15 | ||||||||||||||||
Dazed and Confused | 30% | 40% | 31% | 33% | 38% | |||||||||||||||
Easy Rider |
26% | 17% | 20% | 14% | 18% | |||||||||||||||
Pulp Fiction | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | |||||||||||||||
Singin' in the Rain | 11% | 9% | 13% | 7% | 9% | |||||||||||||||
Raging Bull | 7% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% | |||||||||||||||
Fear and Loathing in |
6% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 7% | |||||||||||||||
Jackass | 6% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 6% | |||||||||||||||
Apocalypse Now | 3% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 4% | |||||||||||||||
How do you predict the market will end this quarter? |
||||||||||||||||
(Question asked beginning in Q1'16) |
||||||||||||||||
Q4'16 | Q3'16 | Q2'16 | Q1'16 | |||||||||||||
Rise | 54% | 41% | 59% | 34% | ||||||||||||
Rise 20% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | ||||||||||||
Rise 15% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | ||||||||||||
Rise 10% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||||||
Rise 5% | 44% | 34% | 47% | 21% | ||||||||||||
Stay basically where it is | 22% | 28% | 21% | 20% | ||||||||||||
Drop 5% | 19% | 24% | 16% | 23% | ||||||||||||
Drop 10% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 16% | ||||||||||||
Drop 15% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% | ||||||||||||
Drop 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | ||||||||||||
Drop | 24% | 31% | 20% | 46% | ||||||||||||
Is the |
||||||||||||||||
Q4'16 | Q3'16 | Q2'16 | Q1'16 | |||||||||||||
Agree (Top 2 Box) | 53% | 33% | 41% | 47% | ||||||||||||
Strongly agree | 12% | 6% | 9% | 7% | ||||||||||||
Somewhat agree | 41% | 27% | 32% | 40% | ||||||||||||
Neither agree nor disagree | 27% | 30% | 29% | 27% | ||||||||||||
Somewhat disagree | 15% | 28% | 20% | 19% | ||||||||||||
Strongly disagree | 5% | 9% | 10% | 7% | ||||||||||||
Disagree (Bottom 2 Box) | 20% | 37% | 30% | 26% | ||||||||||||
How interested are you in each of the following sectors, without taking into account the investment products which you can invest through? (% extremely or very interested) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Q4'16 | Q3'16 | Q2'16 | Q1'16 | Q4'15 | ||||||||||||||||
Large |
47% | 47% | 46% | 42% | 45% | |||||||||||||||
Mid-sized |
36% | 37% | 43% | 35% | 36% | |||||||||||||||
Small |
32% | 31% | 34% | 28% | 32% | |||||||||||||||
Domestic bonds/debt | 23% | 19% | 14% | 17% | 18% | |||||||||||||||
International companies in developed markets (e.g., |
23% | 15% | 20% | 19% | 22% | |||||||||||||||
International companies in emerging markets (e.g., |
20% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 15% | |||||||||||||||
International bonds/debt issued in developed markets | 15% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 11% | |||||||||||||||
International bonds/debt issued in emerging markets | 17% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 11% | |||||||||||||||
What industries do you think offer the most potential this quarter? (Top three) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Q4'16 | Q3'16 | Q2'16 | Q1'16 | Q4'15 | ||||||||||||||||
Information technology | 50% | 44% | 51% | 53% | 45% | |||||||||||||||
Health care | 45% | 54% | 56% | 60% | 57% | |||||||||||||||
Energy | 46% | 43% | 48% | 38% | 41% | |||||||||||||||
Consumer staples | 27% | 30% | 27% | 30% | 35% | |||||||||||||||
Utilities | 25% | 31% | 17% | 18% | 20% | |||||||||||||||
Telecommunication services | 27% | 26% | 24% | 26% | 22% | |||||||||||||||
Financials | 32% | 25% | 29% | 32% | 31% | |||||||||||||||
Industrials | 17% | 16% | 19% | 16% | 14% | |||||||||||||||
Consumer discretionary | 17% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 20% | |||||||||||||||
Materials | 14% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 14% | |||||||||||||||
About
The information provided herein is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. ETFC-G
© 2016
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