Fitch Improved 2020 Global GDP Forecast to 4.4 %
OREANDA-NEWS. American corporation Fitch Ratings has improved the forecast for global gross domestic product (GDP) for 2020: in June it was expected to fall by 4.6 % at the end of the year; according to the new forecast, the decline will be 4.4 %. The September report Global Economic Outlook says the recovery in economic activity amid the coronavirus pandemic is faster than expected.
It is noted that China has already returned to pre-crisis GDP levels, and retail sales in the USA, France and Great Britain are above February levels. However, according to the analyst Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch Ratings, the pace of global economic recovery may slow down again in the near future. “Unemployment shocks lie ahead in Europe, firms are cutting capex, and social distancing continues to directly constrain private-sector spending,” he said.Fitch experts have improved the forecast for 2020 for the USA economy: its GDP, according to their estimates, will decline by 4.6 %, not 5.6 %, as predicted in June. At the same time, the forecast for a decrease in GDP in the Eurozone was worsened to 9 % from 8 %, for emerging markets (except China) to 5.7 % from 4.7 %. The forecast for the growth of the Chinese economy at the end of July was raised by the agency to 2.7 % from 1.2 % expected in June. Fitch expects Russia’s GDP to decline by 4.9 % by the end of 2020, compared with a 5.8 % fall in the previous forecast.