OPEC Lowered the Forecast of Growth of World Oil Demand in 2018-2019
OREANDA-NEWS OPEC lowered the forecast of growth of world oil demand in 2018-2019. Global oil demand in 2019 is projected at the level of 100.23 million barrels per day. This is 30 thousand barrels per day below the previous forecast, and the level of demand in 2018 was lowered by 10 thousand barrels per day to 98.82 million barrels per day.
OPEC also lowered the forecast of oil supply in 2018 from the non-OPEC countries by 60 thousand barrels to 59.56 million barrels per day. Thus, the growth of supply will be 2.02 million barrels per day, according to the September OPEC report.
Demand forecast revised due to the fact that OPEC expects a smaller increase in oil demand in Latin America and the middle East.
According to this information, the growth of oil supply from non-OPEC countries in 2019 will accelerate to 2.15 million barrels per day. In absolute terms, the volume of oil supply by non-OPEC countries in 2019, experts of the organization predict at the level of 61.71 million barrels.
The forecast for oil supply from non-OPEC countries for 2019 has been revised due to lower production in Mexico and Norway, while the main growth in supply will be provided by the US, Brazil and Canada.
OPEC raised its forecast for oil production in Russia in the third quarter of 2018 by 165 thousand barrels per day - to 11.3 million barrels, but kept the forecast for production in the whole year at 11.15 million barrels per day.
According to OPEC, the largest increase in production in Russia was provided by Rosneft-plus 160 thousand barrels in August - to 3.93 million barrels. It is followed by "LUKOIL", "Surgutneftegas", "Gazprom oil" and "Tatneft", the report says.
In General, the forecast for oil production in Russia for 2018 and 2019, OPEC kept at 11.15 and 11.17 million barrels per day, respectively.
According to the report, the OPEC countries in August increased oil production by 278 thousand barrels per day - up to 32.56 million barrels at the expense of countries such as Libya, Iraq and Nigeria.
Thus, in August, the cartel countries exceeded the production ceiling of 32.5 million barrels, established at the end of 2016 in the framework of the Vienna agreement. Since July, OPEC+ countries have eased restrictions and are increasing production.