OREANDA-NEWS. August 07, 2008. Russia's Economic Development Industry has a downbeat outlook on oil production in the country and views gas as more promising, as shown by a comparative analysis of hydrocarbon output forecasts with plans of the Energy Ministry up to 2030.

EDTM has presented the revised Guidelines for Russia's Social and Economic Development for 2020-2030, which have already been submitted to the government and are to be addressed in late September.

EDM has worked out three scenarios: inertia, energy and commodity and innovation subject to putting on stream greenfields, commissioning new pipelines and tapping shelf deposits, which "becomes strategically and economically important for Russia".

They project oil and gas output in offshore areas to reach 20% and 40-45% by 2020, respectively. Owing to the maturity of inland resource base reserves, incremental production "barely" covers output, which "could lead to a reduction in hydrocarbon output and poses a threat to the country's geopolitical security".

Oil output in Russia has been in decline since the beginning of the year – 283.67 mn tons in January-July 2008 vs. 285.04 mn tons in the same period last year.