OREANDA-NEWS. On 22 December 2008 was announced, that Belarus’ seasonally adjusted inflation went up 0.6% in November 2008, which compares to 0.9% in October, 1.4% in September, 1.2% in August, 1.2% in July, 1.2% in June, 1.6% in May, 1.2% in April, 1.1% in March, 0.9% in February and 1.5% in January, Prime-Tass analyst Alexander Mukha said in a comment.

“The seasonally adjusted X12-ARIMA consumer price increase made 0.6% in November 2008 instead of 1.4% [the official inflation rate]. Seasonal factors traditionally cut the inflation rate in autumn and winter and boost it in spring and summer,” Mukha said.

The 0.6% seasonally adjusted inflation rate in November is equivalent to 7.4% annualized inflation, the analyst added.

Belarus may register slower consumer price increases in December and first quarter of 2009, mostly due to mitigation of pressure on the markets of raw materials and foods.

The gasoline price cuts by 10% on December 1 will help the government decrease the inflation rate 0.2 percentage points.

One may expect gasoline prices, both wholesale and retail, to keep falling, Mukha said.

Besides, higher lending rates and Belarusians’ saving efforts also contribute to the slower inflation rate and lower prices.

If inflation remains within 1% a month in October-December, this year’s rate will reach 12.3%, almost the same as in 2007.

The expert believes the central bank should further increase its refinancing rate from 11% currently.

Belarus’ Economy Ministry expects consumer inflation to reach 14%-15% this year and 9%-11% in 2011.