OREANDA-NEWS. August 13, 2010. Rosstat released its growth estimate for 2Q10 GDP, which was 5.2% YoY, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.

View: The 5.2% growth figure released by Rosstat is very close to the assessment  (5.4%) published by the Economics Ministry last month. Nevertheless, we see the figure as quite strong compared with just 2.9% growth in 1Q10.

The improvement in 2Q10 emerged in most major sectors. Crucially, 2Q10 saw the discontinuation of the slide in construction that has occurred throughout the crisis, a sure sign that disinvestment is over. However, the strong 2Q10 results have only a limited impact on our overall cautious view on Russia’s recovery in FY10.

First, even the June figures indicated some slowdown in leading indicators, such as cargo turnover. But most important, the adverse weather conditions that have plagued Russia this summer affect not only the agricultural sector (which is relatively small, contributing just 4% to Russia’s GDP), but the overall level of economic activity. The key question is whether this weather-induced economic impact will be a one-off factor, or whether it will derail the still tenuous pace of economic recovery for some time.