Banks are Confident in the Strengthening of the Ruble Due to a Record “Currency Hole”
OREANDA-NEWS. Banks' foreign exchange liabilities exceed their foreign exchange reserves in April by $ 15 billion, as follows from the statistics of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. This difference is explained by the confidence of bankers in the strengthening of the ruble, which is undervalued by 60%. Such data are provided by SberCIB Investment Research.
By May 1, liabilities of Russian banks in foreign currency reached $ 331.7 billion, and foreign currency assets before deducting reserves - $ 316.6 billion. The difference increased in April by 14% to 15.1 billion.
As a rule, the stocks of cash, rubles and currencies in banks are always less than in the accounts of clients - companies and the population. But the difference in foreign exchange has been growing since November, and banks are not increasing their cash reserves. It turns out that banks are confident in the strengthening of the ruble, and are waiting for the population and companies to start selling currency. "Banks are betting, without taking into account their off-balance sheet positions, to strengthen the ruble," Maxim Osadchiy, head of the analytical department of the BKF bank, explained to RIA Novosti.
At the same time, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is confident in the stability of financial and credit organizations: in Russian banks there is no systemic problem due to a "hole" in the currency balance, and the level of liquidity is comfortable.
For May 1, the reserves of cash in Russian banks amounted to only $ 12.2 billion, while the population's funds in foreign currency reached $ 91.3 billion. "At the same time, the total volume of foreign exchange liquidity is sufficient to cover about 33% of foreign exchange funds of corporate clients, or 15% of all foreign exchange liabilities, which remains a comfortable level," the regulator said in its commentary.