Fitch Estimated the Potential Problems of Russian Banks at 4 Trillion Rubles
OREANDA-NEWS The total volume of potential problems of the Russian banking sector at the moment is more than 4 trillion rubles, follows from the materials of the Fitch rating Agency for the conference "Forecast on the macroeconomic situation and the banking sector".
Of this volume, banks are able to "digest" about 2 trillion rubles on their own — that is how much is the pre-reserve profit of the sector per year. In this regard, the costs of the state and the Central Bank to support the sector are still high, conclude Fitch.
Of the 4.1 trillion of potential problems the half — impaired loans of the third category with overdue over 90 days IFRS 9 in 20 largest banks. From January 1, 2018, banks are moving to the new international reporting standard IFRS 9, according to which provisions for possible losses should be formed throughout the loan term.
About 650 billion rubles. problems accounts for impaired loans of Vnesheconombank (VEB), which includes about 400 billion rubles of bad loans, mostly related to Ukraine, and guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance, which were reclassified in the running.
Approximately 900 billion rubles is negative equity the Bank's bad debt (created by the Central Bank on the basis of the Bank "trust" structure to work with non-core assets from the rehabilitated banks)
The last potential problem of the banking sector — the cost of further cleaning up the sector — is estimated by Fitch at about 550 billion rubles. As noted by the Agency, about 150 banks with a total market share of about 2% will leave the market, and the average hole in their assets will be comparable to that of liquidated and sanitized banks (about 40%).
In June, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that the regulator is waiting for the completion of the clearing of the banking sector in the near future. As of September 1, 470 banks remained in the Russian banking system.
In early May, the Bank of Russia published a report, which referred to the application of the new scheme for the recovery of banks. In particular, a special Fund for the consolidation of the banking sector was used to avoid losses of 2.6 trillion rubles.