World Bank has Improved the Forecast for Russia's GDP for the Third Time
OREANDA-NEWS. The World Bank has improved its forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 for the third time - now international economists expect the Russian economy to grow by 3.2% every year, according to the Bank's May review.
In December, the World Bank forecasted the growth of the Russian economy by 2.6% in 2021 and 3% in 2020, and in its March report, the bank improved its estimate of the growth of the Russian economy to 2.9% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022 year.
"In 2021, GDP is expected to grow 3.2% in Russia, after which the growth rate will be 3.2% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023," the May report said.
According to the results of March, Russian GDP grew by 0.5% compared to March last year and entered positive dynamics for the first time in the last 12 months - at a pace similar to before the pandemic.
The World Bank also predicts a reduction in the poverty level in Russia from 12.1% in 2020 to 11.4% in 2021.
This is the basic scenario. According to the optimistic scenario, Russia's GDP in 2021 will grow by 3.8%, in 2022 - by 4.8% and in 2023 by 3.3%. If the world economy collapses due to a pandemic, then according to the pessimistic scenario, Russia's GDP will decline by 2.6%, 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.
According to Apurva Sangha, the World Bank's lead economist for Russia, several factors have helped and are helping Russia to achieve strong results: the country has created huge foreign exchange reserves, a stable fiscal and banking sector, a social support system, introduced soft restrictions during a pandemic, and is successfully vaccinating, controls morbidity, strengthens ties with China.