NOAA sees near-normal Atlantic storm season

OREANDA-NEWS. June 02, 2016. The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts today, should produce a near-normal amount of storms, surpassing the activity of the last three below-normal seasons, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The six-month-long hurricane season has a 70pc likelihood of bringing 10-16 named storms, four to eight of which could become hurricanes and one to four of those could develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 status or higher, the forecasters said.

The 1981-2010 seasons had an average of a dozen named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to data from Colorado State University.

Energy markets keep a close eye on storm activity that can threaten production in the oil- and natural gas-rich US Gulf of Mexico or that can cripple infrastructure along the US Gulf coast.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita wreaked havoc on energy markets in 2005 before so much domestic production migrated to onshore shale fields. That shift has muted the affect that storms can have on energy prices. But severe storms can still disrupt operations at power plants and refineries, crimping demand for crude and gas, and potentially leading to spikes in the price of gasoline and other refined products.

The US Gulf of Mexico in 2015 accounted for about 16pc of domestic crude production, 5pc of marketed gas production, and was home to about 46pc of US refinery capacity, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

The NOAA's 2016 forecast was a "more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it is difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

El Ni?o, a weather phenomenon that curbed storm development last year, is abating and there is a 70pc chance that La Ni?a will form, according to the outlook. La Ni?a, which can suppress storm-damaging winds in the Atlantic, could foster storm activity from August to October, the peak months of the season.

But the strength and impact of the potential La Ni?a is unclear, according to the forecast.

The 2015 season had 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes. No hurricane last year made landfall along the US coast.