OREANDA-NEWS. On April 20, 2009 the ruble continued to strengthen at the beginning of the day. Its exchange rate against the bi-currency basket was fixed at 38.05 (based on the official rates) after having reached 38.13 on Friday. But after the fixing the trend reversed and, as of the close, the ruble stood at 38.38 against the basket, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE FC.

The US dollar extended its gains not only due to weakening of the ruble against the basket but also because of appreciation against the euro on global currency markets. RUB/USD was fixed at 33.54 (+0.07 from the previous day) and by Monday’s close it stood at 33.84.
 
On Monday, CBR reported its interventions on the currency market in March. For the second month in a row the Bank of Russia was a net buyer. Net purchases reached as much as USD 3,580m and EUR190m. We think that the trend will not last for long and in 2009 CBR will end up being a net seller, thus leading to a reduction in Russia’s international reserves, which we expect to fall by USD 50bn from the current level.

In other macroeconomic news, Rosstat issued its monthly report “Socio-economic Situation in Russia” for March 09. The numbers in the report were quite pessimistic, which implies that the economy has not yet reached a bottom. Among other figures, we would like to highlight the continuing slump in retail sales which came in at -4% YoY after -2.4% in February, while the decline in construction reached a whopping 20.2%.

However, the situation on the labour market seems to be the most worrying. Real wages fell by 5.7% YoY and the unemployment rate reached 9.5% after 8.5% in February.