OREANDA-NEWS. August 17, 2009. The Energy Forecasting Agency has held a seminar on the forecast of the electric energy balance in 2009–2015 and -2020. During the seminar specialists of the Agency presented the forecast of the electric energy balance in 2009–2015 and -2020, reported the press-centre of Minatom. 

The forecast has been prepared on the request of the Ministry of Energy of Russia and is an instrument for monitoring the implementation of the general scheme for the development of the energy sector for the period till 2020. The forecast is based on the current consumption estimates and the plans of power companies to launch new generating capacities and to develop their networks. The companies of the energy sector can use this data for revising their investment programs and mid-term industrial and fuel policies.

The forecast 2009–2020 has two versions: target version and basic version based on the consensus of the energy community called “market expectation.”

The target version says that the energy consumption in Russia will grow from expected 976.3bln KWh in 2009 to 1,078bln KWh in 2012, 1,289bln KWh in 2015 and 1,429bln KWh in 2020 with the average annual growth rate in 2012–2020 being 3.58%. Thus, according to the target version, after 2012 the energy consumption growth rate will reach the pre-crisis level.

The “market expectation” version says that in 2012 Russia will consume 1,022bln KWh, in 2015 – 1,121bln KWh and in 2020 – 1,285bln KWh with the average annual growth in 2012–2020 being 2.9%.

The capacity demand will grow from 216.1mln KWh to 303.7mln KWh in 2020 in the target version and to 281mln KWh in the “market expectation” version.

The document was discussed by representatives of RAO ES Vostok, Generating Company, RusHydro, TGK-11, Mosenergo, Tatenergosbyt, Network Company, TGK-2, TGK-4, OGK-3, OGK-5, OGK-6, INTER RAO UES, Holding MRSK, SO UES, SUEK, KES and other companies.

The other topics of the seminar were the energy consumption growth rate, network development, capacity dynamics, the forecast of electricity production till 2020, etc.

“The forecast of the energy balance till 2020 is the most precise picture of the post-crisis development of the energy sector till 2020,” says Director General of the Energy Forecasting Agency Igor Kozhukovsky. “This instrument is used by the Ministry of Energy of Russia in revising its investment programs and coordinating TPP gas supply procedures with Gazprom. Presently, we are preparing a forecast of energy consumption in 2010–20120 and -2030 with a view to minimize possible risks for power generating companies and power consumers.”

Closed Joint-Stock Company "Energy Forecasting Agency" (the EFA) was established in August 2005 by the national holding company – JSC "RAO UES of Russia".

The Agency supplies members of the Russian electric power sector, governmental authorities and other interested parties with objective data on the current status of the electric power industry, its impact on the national economy and environment, including  forecasts and relevant analysis to support effective decision-making in the short and the long-run.