OREANDA-NEWS. October 06, 2009. CBR published estimates of the 9M09 BoP. The current account expanded from a US 17.1bn surplus in 6M09 to US32bn in 9M09. Meanwhile, the 2Q09 capital account surplus has turned into a US 23.9bn deficit, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE FC.

View: The decline in exports has slowed somewhat, from -46% YoY in 2Q09 to -41% YoY in 3Q09, due to an increase in oil prices and a stabilization in commodities demand. Imports, however, saw the same 41% YoY decline, which allowed for a US 31bn trade surplus in 3Q09 vs. USD 24bn in 2Q09. We believe the decelerated import decline is a positive sign that is supportive of GDP, especially since destocking pressures are now limited.

The substantial turnaround in the capital account, however, came from the banking sector. As in previous quarters, banks were reducing their foreign liabilities (by US 5bn), this time they also increased their foreign assets by US 23.5bn. Thus, banks continued to expand their net foreign position in August and September, after having increased foreign assets in July by US 13bn.

This is negative news for banks, as it suggests that they will seek to compensate for forex losses. Considering the existing conditions in the banking sector, this might require increased state support in one form or another. For other sectors (i.e. companies and population), a US 16.0bn increase in foreign liabilities was offset by a US 15.5bn increase in foreign assets.