OREANDA-NEWS. October 07, 2009. The trend toward deterioration of the economic environment that has continued for nine quarters in a row has come to an end, it appears from September estimates by experts questioned by the Estonian Institute of Economic Research.

In the third quarter difficult situation in the Estonian economy continued, but the situation improved in comparison with June, the institute said.

Signs of adaptation and stabilization of the economy had been added to the estimates in June and the expectations of the group of experts regarding the upcoming six months were more positive than earlier then, with the index of economic climate rising for the first time after March 2007.

Estimates given in September allow to claim with greater certainty than in June that the most difficult times in the Estonian economy are over, the institute said.

Fifty-two percent of experts in September saw the situation of the economy as improving over the next six months. Those believing that the situation would be the same made up 24 percent, while another as much saw a further deterioration ahead.

The experts see the main reason of the economic crisis in Estonia as being the decline in exports caused by the steep drop in demand for import in countries that are Estonia's main trading partners, which led to a decline in industrial output and subsequent rises in unemployment and contraction of investments.

The coming six months are seen as bringing good news as far as investments and development of exports are concerned. That should create preconditions for the manufacturing sector to exit the low point, the institute said.

Deflation is expected to come to an end this year and a moderate price rise is seen as setting in from the new year. Loan interests are likely to stay on their present levels over the six-month period but stock prices are probably in for a rise.

For next year, 52 percent of the experts forecast a standstill of the economy and 12 percent predict a moderate decline. Rapid growth, or GDP growth of more than 5 percent, is forecast by 12 percent, moderate growth by 6 percent and low growth by 18 percent of the experts interviewed.