OREANDA-NEWS. October 13, 2009. According to Financial Ministry, in September the federal fiscal deficit was RUB199bn (US6.5bn). Revenues were up 10% MoM to RUB684bn solely because of oil revenues, whereas expenditures were flat MoM at RUB884bn. Thus, the accumulated deficit for 9M09 stayed at 4.7% of GDP, virtually the same level as a month ago, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE FC.

View: The government seems to be well on its way to implementing its fiscal spending plan, with RUB800-900bn scheduled to be spent in October and November and RUB1.5tr slated to be spent in December. On the revenue side, the full year figure will most likely be around RUB7.1-7.2tr, rather than RUB6.7tr, implying a RUB2.5bn deficit (about 6% of GDP), rather than RUB3.0 bn. Meanwhile, this means that in the 4Q09 the government will still expand its fiscal deficit by RUB1.2tr, most of which will come in December, creating some downside risks to the ruble at year’s end or early in 2010.

Meanwhile, in September non-oil revenues were RUB323bn, essentially the same level as in June and August, moderating the optimism regarding economic improvement in September. In all likelihood, the 3Q09 results will not be substantially better than those of 1H09, despite the end of de-stocking period.