OREANDA-NEWS. November 06, 2009. According to Rosstat, CPI inflation was zero for October, which left the YTD figure unchanged at 8.1%, reported the press-centre of Otkritie FC.

View: This is the third consecutive month that CPI growth has been zero, but unlike previous months, October is not a time of seasonal disinflation.

We believe the key reason for the lack of price growth is continuing economic weakness, given the overall background of a 9.4% YoY drop in GDP we saw in 3Q09. However, in our view, this scenario allows CBR to continue monetary weakening, and we expect another 50bp decrease in the refinancing rate by year’s end.