OREANDA-NEWS. February 10, 2010. It is included into the Report on monetary policy published by the bank, containing a detailed analysis of the current economic situation, including the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and monetary aggregates, inflation development, medium-term macroeconomic forecast for 2 years and explanation of decisions regarding the monetary policy approved to fulfill the major objective.

The latest data and hypotheses regarding the home and external economic environment were used when working out the forecast. The medium-term macroeconomic forecast presents development of inflation, GDP and other indicators for 2010-2011 in case of promotion of the neutral monetary policy. The NBM emphasizes that the forecast is not a promise, it is just estimation.

The National Bank called the more active growth of prices for energy resources in the external market as a result of the more expressed revival of the global economy; growth of prices for foodstuffs in the world, change in taxes, duties and excise taxes; growth of prices regulated by the state among the inflation factors which may cause deviation from the NBM’s forecast. The deflation factors could be the slower than expected recovery of the global economy; a more moderate growth of the home demand; lower than expected crediting of the national economy.

The NBM emphasizes that taking into consideration the above mentioned, and basing on new data which will be received during the year, the National Bank reserves the right to revise the medium-term macroeconomic forecast (2 years) and to correct the monetary policy. The objective of the NBM’s Report on monetary policy – to inform the society about the current events in the national economy, reduction of inflation expectations, to describe the possible development of inflation, including inflation and deflation factors and to present decision regarding the monetary policy approved by the National Bank’s Administrative Board to fulfill the state inflation objective.