OREANDA-NEWS. March 16, 2010. In January 2010, Goods Trade Deficit amounted to USD 314mn (vs. Surplus of USD 396mn in January 2009). In particular, Goods Exports amounted to USD 3.0bn (up 24%, y/y), while Goods Imports were equal to USD 3.3bn (up 63%, y/y). The main export contributors were ferrous metals (a 32% share of total exports), heavy machinery (9%), grain (9%), and oil refining products (8%). Meanwhile, imports mainly consisted of natural gas (a 23% share of total imports), heavy machinery (13%) and oil (12%).

Millennium Capital sees the news to be neutral, since the Goods Trade Deficit in January was mainly due to the natural gas imports (up 4 times, y/y), this significant amount being accounted for by very cold weather in that month. Millennium Capital expects that, despite the growth in the exports of metallurgy, heavy machinery and grain, the Goods Trade Deficit may amount to USD 6bn in 2010, if the natural gas price is maintained at the current high level (USD 305 per tcm).