OREANDA-NEWS. August 02, 2010. Moody's Investors Service has downgraded ATF Bank's local and foreign-currency deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings to Ba2 from Ba1. The bank's E+ bank financial strength rating (BFSR) has been affirmed, which now translates to a Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of B3. ATF Bank's B1 foreign-currency junior subordinated debt rating has also been affirmed. At the same time, Moody's changed the outlook on all of the bank's ratings to stable from negative, reported the press-centre of KASE.

The downgrade of ATF Bank's deposits and senior unsecured debt ratings is in response to the weakening of its credit profile over the last year. This is reflected by the following trends in its audited IFRS financial statements: (i) a significant deterioration of its loan portfolio (impaired loans rose to 30.9% of gross loans at year-end 2009, from 17.5% at year-end 2008); (ii) poor financial results, with net losses of KZT54.77 billion (USD369 million) at year-end 2009, driven by increased loan-loss provisions and weakened earnings; and (iii) weak capitalisation, with an equity-to-assets ratio of 5.7% at year-end 2009, compared with 9.4% at year-end 2008.

The change of the outlook to stable from negative factors in the moderate easing of the pressure on the bank's capitalisation following an agreement between ATF Bank and its parent bank Unicredit Bank Austria AG. Under this agreement, Unicredit guarantees over 40% of ATF Bank's loan portfolio (USD2.8 billion) starting from 31 December 2009, according to the information provided by the bank and verified in its IFRS financial statements. The stable outlook also acknowledges the bank's improved position in Kazakhstan's banking system's deposits, with a market share of 10.5% at the end of May 2010 (according to the bank's regulatory reports).

ATF Bank's audited IFRS financial statements show that it remains highly reliant on market funding, which accounted for almost half of its total liabilities at year- end 2009. About a third of these market funds are due to Unicredit, which partly mitigates the refinancing risk. Nevertheless, ATF Bank still has to repay a substantial amount of non-parental debt, of which approximately USD600 million is due over the next one year (until Q3 2011).

According to Moody's, ATF Bank's E+ BFSR is underpinned by the bank's significant market share and its improving risk management from the integration into the UniCredit Group. However, the rating also accounts for the bank's weak asset quality, profitability and capitalisation, as well as its high borrower concentration and material reliance on wholesale funding.

The bank's Ba2 deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings are based on its B3 BCA, Moody's assessment of a high probability of support from UniCredit SpA (rated C/Aa3), combined with a low probability of systemic support due to ATF's position as the fifth-largest bank in Kazakhstan, accounting for 9.2% of the banking sector's total assets at end-May 2010, according to the bank's regulatory reports. These support assessments result in a four-notch uplift from ATF's B3 BCA.

Moody's notes that ATF Bank's ratings currently have limited upside potential due to ongoing pressure on the bank's financial fundamentals. However, in the medium term, the deposit and debt ratings may benefit from increased earnings and lower loan-loss provisions, which will translate into increases in net income and capital.

Conversely, a further material weakening of ATF Bank's earnings generation will probably erode its capital and franchise. This could lead to a downgrade of its BFSR, and its deposit and debt ratings. Higher than currently anticipated credit losses and significantly deteriorating liquidity will also result in a downgrade of the ratings. In addition, any reduction in the likelihood of parental or systemic support (which is already low) may result in a downgrade of ATF Bank's deposit and debt ratings.

Moody's previous rating action on ATF Bank was implemented on 29 January 2010, when ATF Bank's junior subordinated debt rating was downgraded to B1 from Ba3.

The principal methodologies used in rating ATF Bank were "Bank Financial Strength Ratings: Global Methodology", published in February 2007, and "Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings: A Refined Methodology", which was published in March 2007 and can be found at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.

Headquartered in Almaty, Kazakhstan, ATF Bank reported total assets, shareholders equity and net losses of USD7.09 billion, USD 405 million and USD 369 million), respectively, at year-end 2009, according to its audited IFRS financial statements.