OREANDA-NEWS. November 21, 2011. Recently released macro data for October is mixed relative to consensus estimates, but for now, domestic demand is holding up well:

·         Fixed investment rose 8.6% YoY (consensus 7.8%), a slight strengthening from September’s 8.5% YoY growth

·         Retail sales grew 8.8% YoY (consensus 8.6%) but is down on last month’s 9.2%

·         Real disposable income rose a mere 0.4% YoY (consensus 2.3%), and last month’s 3.2% YoY growth was revised down to 2.9%

·         Real wages expanded 5% YoY in October (consensus 6%), and like real disposable income, the September growth rate was revised down from 6.2% to 5.3% YoY

·         Unemployment, which unexpectedly fell to 6% in September, edged up to 6.4% (consensus was looking for 6.2%)

Bottom line

While most data in October showed a deterioration on September, the overall growth level in most variables, with the exception of real disposable income, is pretty impressive. Aside from the oil price holding up strongly (Urals Med in October averaged USD 108.2/bbl) we also believe the rouble’s appreciation in October after its sharp depreciation in August-September, was data supportive.