OREANDA-NEWS. August 7, 2012. As the harvesting of early crops in Ukraine - wheat, barley and rapeseed - approach completion, and as the conditions for autumn crops become more apparent, Kernel is pleased to provide the Company's forecast for Ukraine's grain and oilseed production and export potential.

Kernel's expectations for 2012 Ukraine's harvest (thousands of tons)

 

Gross harvest

2012E 2011

Gross

harvest,

yoy

Acreage

harvested,

yoy

Yield,

yoy

Wheat

15 600 22 324

-30%

-21%

-12%

Corn

21 000 22 838

-8%

16%

-21%

Barley

6 900 9 098

-24%

-13%

-13%

Total grains

45 500 56 747

-20%

-9%

-12%

 

Sunflower

8900 9281

-4%

9%

-12%

Soybean

2 500 2 197

14%

22%

-7%

Rapeseed

1 200 1 402

-14%

-29%

21%

Total

oilseeds

12 600 12 879

-2%

6%

-8%

At this point we evaluate Ukraine’s grain export potential in the 2012/13 marketing year at around 20 million tons. While overall grain production is estimated to decline by 11 million tons yoy, the abnormally high carried forward stocks should compensate for lower production, resulting in a marginally flat export forecast for this current season. This outlook could be revised downwards if adverse weather conditions negatively impact the expected corn production and the corresponding amount available for export.

Kernel’s farming division production results are above the Ukrainian average. With most of the early crops already harvested, we see wheat and rapeseed yields down 8% and 4% yoy, respectively, while the barley yield posted a 7% yoy increase as a result of the bountiful spring-sown crop.

Legal grounds: Art. 56.1.1 of the Act of 29 July 2005 on the public offering, conditions governing the introduction of financial instruments to organised trading system and on public companies.