OREANDA-NEWS. November 19, 2012. Insignificant improvement of consumer confidence of Ukrainians was observed in October. The October consumer confidence index (CCI) is 82.4 which is just 0.6 p. higher than in September. In October positive dynamics in inflationary expectations were occurred in parallel with the ongoing increase in devaluation expectations. This is proved by the consumer confidence survey in Ukraine, conducted by GfK Ukraine on a monthly basis.

In October 2012 the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) grew by 0.6 p. to 82.4. 

Index of Current Situation remained stable and fixed on the level of 80.5 which 0.1 p. lower than in September. The components of this index changed in the following way:
Index of Current Personal Financial Standing (x1) gained 3.2 p. and reached 83.7;
Propensity to Consume (х5) lost 3.4 p. to 77.3.

Economic Expectations of the population increased by 1.1 p. to 83.7. The components of this index changed as follows:
Index of Expected Changes in Personal Financial Standing (х2) gained 3.5 p. to 91.5;
Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next Year (х3) improved by 2 p. to 78.6;
Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next Five Years (х4) decreased by 2.3 p. to 81.

At the same time, insignificant better Expectations regarding changes in unemployment were observed in October: the respective index is 126.9 which 0.4 p. lower than the index value in September. Moreover, positive dynamics in inflationary expectations were observed: index value fell by 3.4 p. to 181.8. However, Ukrainians became more pessimistic regarding the UAH exchange rate during the next 3 months: the index of devaluationary expectations grew by 2.9 p. to 144.9.

The following key trends were observed in October:
In October, the gap between the index of the current situation x1 and the propensity to consume x5, which exceeded 6 points again, recovered. This happened along with the decline of inflationary expectations to their lowest level since July 2011 and in parallel with the increase in devaluation expectations.
Pre-election initiatives focused on the poorest led to the convergence of consumer confidence of these citizens with those whose income was below average and average. While in September the index of consumer confidence of people with average income was 14 p.p. higher than the similar indicator for respondents with below average income, the gap decreased to 2 p.p. in October. Similarly the gap in consumer confidence among the least positive older group aged 46-59 and the middle age group of 31-45 years old also decreased.

"Temporary advance in welfare before the elections did not outweight expectations of financial instability increasing with passing time. This resulted in stable consumer confidence in general along with different trends in specific groups of citizens”, as analysts of GfK Ukraine commented.