OREANDA-NEWS. Oil production from the Middle East is seen to average 1.39 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 0.11 mb/d. Middle East oil supply remained relatively unchanged compared to the previous MOMR, with a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d following updated production data. The anticipated decline is coming from Syria and Yemen, while Oman oil production is forecast to increase by 20 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.94 mb/d. This is unchanged from the previous assessment, despite a minor upward revision in the third quarter that did not impact the annual figure. Syria’s oil supply is expected to decline by 0.12 mb/d to average 90 tb/d in 2013.

However, the lack of production data from Syria due to the ongoing political situation might bring a large revision once the numbers become available. Yemen’s oil supply is expected to drop 20 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.16 mb/d. The risk and uncertainties of the forecast remain on the high side given the continued security issues as well as data availability. On a quarterly basis, Middle East oil production is expected to average 1.47 mb/d, 1.33 mb/d, 1.39 mb/d and 1.35 mb/d, respectively.