OREANDA-NEWS.  November 11, 2013. During the press conference, devoted to presentation of the Inflation Report, the President of the National Bank Dorin Dragutanu has informed that in 2013 inflation rate will make 4.5 %, or 0.2 percentage points higher than it was predicted before.

In 2014, it is expected that inflation will reach 4.9%, or 0.9 percentage points higher than it was previously projected. According to the forecasts of the National Bank in the nearest future, as a result of the impact of stimulating monetary policy, a slight acceleration in inflation is expected. At the same time, according to a new forecast for the next 8 quarters, the inflation rate will remain within ± 1,5 percentage points from the target of 5 %.

The updated forecast of the National Bank's inflation rate provides strengthening the impact of core inflation and food prices on overall inflation. Prices for oil products still have a little effect on the inflation rate compared with the energy shocks in 2010-2011. According to Dragutanu, the inflation forecast is compiled taking into account the decline in GDP in euro area by 0.3% in 2013 and its growth by 0.9 % in 2014. At the same time, it is expected that economic growth in Russia will amount to 2 % and 2.6 % in 2013-2014.

Prices of oil products and gas will continue to grow slower than it was expected, and the price of agro-food products will continue to decline. Dorin Dragutanu noted that euro has significantly strengthened its position vs. U.S. dollar and as he said, the external data shows that in the coming months, there are prerequisites that the euro will gradually depreciate against USD.

It is expected that in mid-2014 the oil products prices will increase and by mid- 2015 the effects of regulated prices on the overall inflation rate may grow.