OREANDA-NEWS. Belarus' GDP growth is likely to slow down further to 0.5% in 2014, the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) said in a forecast.

The EEC has released a forecast to share its vision of economic development in member states of the Eurasian Economic Community in 2014-2016.

According to the official forecast of the Belarusian government, Belarus' GDP growth in 2014 is expected 3.3%. The official forecast for 2013 stood at 8.5%, however in Jan-Nov 2013 the country's economy expanded by a tiny 0.9%.

High interest rates on the money market retain domestic demand, which adds to the decline in the GDP growth, which is likely to reach 0.5% in 2014, the EEC said.

At the same time, EEC experts expect Belarus' economy to expand by 6.1% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016. Experts point out that Belarus' economy is heavily development on the economic situation in Russia - a major market for Belarusian commodities. The economic slump in Russia is partly to blame for Belarus' export woes.

It is probable that risks relating to external and internal misbalances may aggravate further in the contest of high expectations of ruble devaluation, the likely decline in gold and FX reserves despite new external borrowings, the EEC said.

There is a low chance of adjusting those misbalances merely by means of optimizing the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble, ECC experts say.

The Belarusian ruble will keep devaluating slowly within the limits of 14-15% per year, the analysts say.

According to the official forecast of the Belarusian government, Belarus' inflation growth in 2014 is supposed stay under 11%. In 2013 Belarus had hoped to restrain inflation growth at 12%, however the consumer price index reached 16.5% at the end of the year.

According to the EEC forecast, Russia's GDP growth will not exceed 3% in 2014, while the level of inflation growth is expected to reduce from 6.6% in 2013 to 4.6% in 2016.