OREANDA-NEWS.  The Middle East’s oil supply is estimated to decrease by 0.12 mb/d in 2013 from one year earlier to average 1.35 mb/d, remaining unchanged from the previous MOMR. Preliminary production data shows that the region’s output in 1Q14 registered at 1.33 mb/d, a drop by 20 tb/d over 4Q13. The Middle East’s oil supply forecast is generally associated with a very high level of risk; nevertheless, it is forecast to increase by 20 tb/d to average 1.37 mb/d in 2014 compared with the previous year.

On a quarterly basis, the region’s production in 2014 is estimated to average of 1.33 mb/d, 1.38 mb/d, 1.38 mb/d and 1.39 mb/d, respectively.

Oman’s supply is expected to increase by 30 tb/d in 2014 to average 0.97 mb/d, unchanged from the previous prediction.

Syria’s production is expected to drop by 30 tb/d in 2014 to average 30 tb/d. The downward movement is due to the country’s current political situation, which is associated with a high level of risk.

Yemen’s production is expected to average 0.15 mb/d in 2014, showing an increase of 10 tb/d from one year earlier when output resumed at Block 10 in East Shabwa. Nevertheless, due to continued attacks on infrastructure, the supply forecast is at a high risk.