10505.JPG

OREANDA-NEWS. Lada cars of all models as standard finished at many dealers of AvtoVAZ in December, and the top versions of the warehouses are scanty and they will be sold in the next 1-2 weeks. The top manager of trade three companies informed the newspaper “Vedomosti”, by noting that if you order Lada now, you will have to wait more than a month.

For the last 10 years there were no so empty warehouses, commented one of the dealers of AvtoVAZ: stocks did not fall below 70% of monthly sales, now - about 20%. "People are running around salons and sweep away everything. A little more - and we'll be playing in the warehouse in football”, - joking another dealer of the plant. Now he has left about 30 cars, and in normal times it was 130-150 units. According to the source "Vedomosti", some dealers of AvtoVAZ even forced to persuade colleagues to sell a particular model to put it in the showroom.

The desire to attach ruble savings and to buy a car at the old price on the background of falling ruble – is the main reason for the excessive demand for cars, remind dealers. AvtoVAZ unlike many brands have not risen prices yet, but it is inevitable, they say. Dealers expect the price will rise for Lada in January by approximately 5% (there is no decision yet). Sales are stimulated by recycling program that AvtoVAZ, along with other car plants, launched in September.

In October, sales of AvtoVAZ were better than the market (37,788 units, + 1%), but in November - significantly worse (30,402 units, -17%). Russia's largest automaker since the beginning of 2014 due to the downturn in sales reduces activity the production, but in autumn it was in opposition, commented one of the dealers. Plant again has to increase the production, but it is impossible to do quickly - you need to rebuild the entire chain, including suppliers. Deficiency of components for Lada, which peaked in October-November (because of it, even the line was stopped, which produced the best-selling model Lada - Granta), is less now, but not completely eliminated, the dealer knows. "We have not, for example, received all the cars, ordered in September – October”, - he said.

The crisis with suppliers has been overcome and now AvtoVAZ works rhythmically, says a source close to the company. All that is produced now is shipped directly to dealers, he said. Since September dealers bought the cars directly from the plant: the system of regional warehouses was abolished, the rest of cars will be sold by the end of the year. AvtoVAZ will retain only the area at the plant, he continues: there will be formed gradually a technical reserve of several thousand cars under demand fluctuations. This is a standard approach to foreign automakers. Earlier regional warehouses kept tens of thousands of cars, which complicated logistics and increased costs, he adds.

Deficit of cars will be eliminated in December and January, and if the increased demand will be continued - in February, says a source close to AvtoVAZ. It will not happen until February, according to the dealer. At the beginning of 2015 the ruble is likely to continue to fall, respectively, it will be maintained the increased demand for Lada, he says. Sales will be supported by scrapping program in 2015, although we should not count on steady growth, says analyst of "VTB Capital", Vladimir Bespalov.

Excessive demand is fixed by dealers of other brands, but their stocks are not so exhausted. They declined, but in general they are "at a normal level of 1.5-month sales”, - says dealer of Renault. "The stock by Hyundai is a little more than for 1.5 months," - says the dealer of brand. As a rule, foreign automakers are asked to keep reserves at the level of 1.5-1.8-month sales, he recalls.