RUB: outperforming peers

OREANDA-NEWS. Yesterday, trading flows in the Russian FX market remained decent, despite the public holiday in the US: the MICEX reported total turnover in USDRUB of USD 4.1bn. RUB traded stronger as crude oil prices continued to pick up. Brent gained 0.8% and closed at USD 59.9/bbl, yet during the day it traded well above the USD 60/bbl mark. In light of this, RUB firmed 0.4% towards the end of the day to close at 63.20 against USD. However, during the session USDRUB traded as low as 62.20. Nevertheless, RUB continued outperforming the EM FX index, which closed flat yesterday (there was not much price action due to the absence of US investors). Meanwhile, NOK firmed 0.3% against USD, whilst NGN recovered 2.8%. Market participants perhaps remain concerned about geopolitical risks associated with the unrest in eastern Ukraine, which adds volatility to the Russian FX market. In addition, the recent spread widening between the overnight FX swap and RUONIA to deeply negative levels could be a sign of a growing US dollar liquidity deficit in the interbank market, which has a negative spillover in the FX spot market. However, we highlight that yesterday the CBR provided USD 2.3bn in one-year and USD 5.1bn in 28-day FX repo auctions. Hence, the total FX repo volume outstanding would increase USD 4.2bn to USD 25.9bn, if banks roll over in full today the one-week FX repo debt. In addition, on Friday the CBR is holding 312-P FX refinancing auctions, which could give banks an additional opportunity to cover the demand for FX liquidity. We estimate that in March, foreign debt redemptions are to be markedly lower than in February.