Uncertainty clouds Spain's May LNG schedule

OREANDA-NEWS. Only one of the four LNG re-exports listed in Spain's May shipping schedule has been confirmed, as high offer prices have limited market interest in reload cargoes from the country.

Four cargoes totalling 545,000m have been listed for loading in the May schedule published by system operator Enagas. But three — at Barcelona, Bilbao and Sagunto — are described as provisional. Only one — a 141,300m cargo scheduled for loading at Sagunto near the end of the month — is listed as firm.

Spain's gross May LNG deliveries are scheduled to total 2.12mn m. If all of the re-exports on the plan are loaded, its net receipts would be 1.57mn m, while loading only the firm re-export cargo at Sagunto would leave net receipts at 1.98mn m.

By comparison, Spain re-exported 1.15mn m of LNG in May 2014, leaving it with net receipts of just 659,000m — the country's smallest net monthly LNG receipts in at least a decade.

A more tentative June schedule includes two provisional LNG reloads — one from Huelva and one from Sagunto, totalling 264,000m, and gross receipts of 1.88mn m.

In June 2014, Spain re-exported 701,000m, leaving it with net receipts of nearly 960,000m.

To offset the weaker re-export demand, Spain is set to dial down its pipeline imports from France — largely of Norwegian gas — to their lowest since June 2011. Just 41 GWh/d is scheduled for delivery from France in May and nearly 45 GWh/d in June, down from nearly 123 GWh/d in May-June 2014.

Pipeline receipts from Algeria are nominated at about 484 GWh/d in May-June, up from 466 GWh/d a year earlier. Spain's Algerian receipts were 224 GWh/d lower year on year in February-March at 345 GWh/d. But following the fall in oil prices through the second half of last year, importers have an incentive to load their Algerian take to the summer months, when oil-linked gas prices look set to be far lower than in the first quarter.

Enagas expects Spanish gas demand to be around 37 GWh/d higher year on year in May-June at nearly 761 GWh/d. The firm has forecast a rise in demand this year because of growing industrial gas use and on the assumption of seasonally normal weather after 2014's above-average temperatures.