OREANDA-NEWS. AUTOSTAT analytic agency adjusted the forecast of sales in the Russian market in 2015. The new forecast was presented by the director of the agency Sergei Tselikov at AvtoBoss conference  in Moscow on 1 July.

The optimistic scenario of the market remained unchanged - 1.64 million vehicles, which is 30% less than last year (2,340,000 vehicles). But the level of pessimistic scenario was raised considerably.  "Even if the further development of the Russian market is not the best, not less than 1.3 million vehicles will be sold this year, - Mr. Tselikov said. - Although it is 45% less than last year." We should remind that earlier there also was ‘shock’ scenario, under which the market capacity could decrease to 1.1 million vehicles. Now, after the stabilization of the situation, this variant is excluded.

According to Sergey Tselikov, the most real and expected by analysts result, based on data for the first half of the current year, is the market decline by 36% to 1.5 million new cars. Import will decrease by about 60%, while domestic production will reduce by about 30%. The share of vehicles assembled in Russia will account for about 75-80% of the market in 2015.

Mr. Tselikov has previously stated that the market “has found the bottom and is actually going through it now." Monthly sales of 110,000-130,000 vehicles are equilibrium under the current state of the economy and consumer activity. "Slight increase in monthly sales volume can be expected only by the end of the year, the actual recovery of the automotive market will not begin until spring 2016," - the expert said.