OREANDA-NEWS. Global oil demand growth will accelerate to 1.34mn b/d in 2016 from 1.28mn b/d this year, with consumption reaching 93.94mn b/d, according to Opec's first 2016 global demand forecast. The organisation sees the call on its crude at 30.1mn b/d next year, up from 29.2mn b/d in 2015. But data from member countries indicate June output of around 32.1mn b/d.

"Improvement in global economic activities in 2016 is anticipated to be translated into higher oil consumption," Opec said in its July Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). It sees next year's oil demand growth driven almost entirely by developing economies.

The IEA said last week it expects global oil demand to increase by 1.2mn b/d next year to 95.2mn b/d, with the call on Opec crude for 2016 rising by 1mn b/d to 30.3mn b/d compared with this year.

This month's MOMR includes June data from all Opec member countries except Libya, Algeria and Venezuela, while only Libyan numbers are absent from May data. Iraq reports a month-on-month production increase of 303,000 b/d in June to 3.59mn b/d, and Saudi Arabia a 230,900 b/d gain to 10.56mn b/d, its highest monthly average on record.

Using Argus data for the missing Libyan numbers and average estimates for Venezuela's and Algeria's June output, the total for June is around 32.09mn b/d and the May level 31.57mn b/d. The numbers are higher than Opec's own second-quarter call on its crude of 28.32mn b/d, against Opec's own reported production of 31.14mn b/d for the quarter.

Opec forecasts non-Opec supply growth to slow to 300,000 b/d next year, compared with 860,000 b/d in 2015. Non-Opec supply is set to average 57.69mn b/d next year, the group said.

"The main contributors to the growth are seen to be the US, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Norway and China, which will be partially offset by declines in Russia, Mexico, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Yemen," Opec said. "Total US liquids production is expected to grow by 330,000 b/d, just one third of the growth of 930,000 b/d expected this year."