OREANDA-NEWS. RnR Market Research Offers Report by Research on Turkmenistan Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

BMI View: Turkmenistan's construction market will be driven by government spending and increasing investment in the country's key gas infrastructure, along with major inter-regional gas and rail interconnectivity projects. However, key risks to our forecasts are falling gas demand from China and Russia, increasing macroeconomic pressures and an uncompetitive business and investment environment.

Forecast & Industry Developments

- Construction industry growth will slow slightly in 2016 to 7.1% from 7.8% in 2015 and 9.6% in 2014 due to economic headwinds related to falling gas revenues. However, our 10-year forecast sees average annual growth of 8.3% and a value of TMT46.3bn (USD10.2bn) in 2025.

- The key sectors for development will be those related to trade and the transit of goods, so we expect transport (especially rail), along with energy (particularly gas production and transmission), to remain the key investment areas.

- However, the marquee TAPI pipeline project is beset with problems relating to funding, security concerns along its planned route and fragile commitment from the partners.

- While GDP growth will remain solid (6.5% in 2016 and 7.0% in 2017), as to be expected from an emerging economy, we see growth slowing over the next decade, but at a pace unlikely to spur the government into economic diversification, which we view as essential to maintain infrastructure spending.