OREANDA-NEWS. December 19, 2008. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development forecasts a recession in the national economy at least until mid-2009 and also expects for the first time in many years a current account deficit, record capital outflow of around USD 90 bn and a decrease in international reserves by another USD 110-140 bn in 2009.

"Under the inertia scenario, a direct contraction in GDP will last for three quarters. In line with the baseline scenario, GDP will be back on the growth track as early as the middle of the year" – Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrey Klepach said Thursday. According to him, the country’s inertia economic development scenario projects a 0.5% reduction in GDP and a 2.4% increase is reflected in the baseline scenario. Klepach said that Russia’s net current account for the balance of payments will be negative and will equal USD 45 bn under the baseline scenario, while the balance of trade will remain positive, with a surplus of USD 18 bn.